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The Fireweed Capital Podcast

The Fireweed Capital Podcast

By: Dr. Adam Link CFP®
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The Fireweed Capital Podcast is a wealth planning podcast for tech professionals, hosted by Dr. Adam Link, CFP®. Each episode breaks down financial strategies, from equity compensation and tax optimization to retirement planning, with data-driven insights and a contrarian perspective that challenges conventional wisdom.

© 2026 The Fireweed Capital Podcast Economics Personal Finance
Episodes
  • Why Tech Professionals Fall for the Sunk Cost Fallacy (And How It's Destroying Your Wealth)

    Why Tech Professionals Fall for the Sunk Cost Fallacy (And How It's Destroying Your Wealth)
    Apr 14 2026
    Tech professionals are uniquely vulnerable to the sunk cost fallacy in investing. The same persistence and analytical skills that make engineers successful in their careers often lead them to hold onto losing investments far longer than they should. This episode explores why your engineering mindset can work against you in the markets and provides a systematic framework for making rational exit decisions. ## Key Topics Covered **Why Engineers Fall for the Sunk Cost Fallacy** - How persistence in problem-solving translates poorly to investing - The danger of overconfidence in technical analysis - Analysis paralysis and its investment costs - Mental accounting with equity compensation **The Hidden Costs of Sunk Cost Thinking** - Opportunity cost calculations with real numbers - "Attention debt" and its impact on career advancement - Portfolio distortion and concentration risk - Tax inefficiency from not harvesting losses - Psychological scarring and long-term investment behavior **Building Your Investment Algorithm** - Position sizing rules (5% max for any single position) - Stop-loss rules with specific, measurable criteria - Quarterly rebalancing triggers - The "opportunity cost audit" framework - Tax-loss harvesting integration - Complexity budgeting for your portfolio ## Action Items 1. Implement position sizing rules for new investments (never more than 5% in any single position) 2. Apply the opportunity cost audit quarterly: "If I had this cash today, would I buy this investment?" 3. Set calendar reminders for quarterly portfolio reviews 4. Build systematic rules that remove emotion from investment decisions ## Key Statistics - Overconfident investors typically underperform by 2-3% annually - For tech professionals, sunk cost thinking can cost $300,000-$500,000 over a 20-year career - Tax-loss harvesting can add 0.5% to 1% annually in after-tax returns ## Resources - Studies on overconfidence bias in investing - Portfolio construction frameworks - Tax-loss harvesting strategies - Behavioral finance research Remember: The best investors aren't the ones who are right most often — they're the ones who keep their losses small and let their winners run.
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    36 mins
  • How Much Company Stock Is Too Much? The Hidden Risk in Your RSU Portfolio

    How Much Company Stock Is Too Much? The Hidden Risk in Your RSU Portfolio
    Apr 7 2026
    Most tech professionals unknowingly have 40-60% of their wealth concentrated in company stock, creating dangerous single point of failure. Learn the hidden math, warning signs, and seven practical diversification strategies while managing taxes.
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    38 mins
  • Are Index Funds Actually Riskier Than Active Management Right Now?

    Are Index Funds Actually Riskier Than Active Management Right Now?
    Mar 31 2026
    In this episode, we challenge one of the most sacred assumptions in modern investing: that passive index funds are automatically less risky than active management. With the S&P 500 more concentrated than ever and asset class correlations breaking down, the risk-reward dynamics between passive and active investing have fundamentally shifted.## Key Topics Covered:### The Concentration Problem- The top 10 holdings now represent over 35% of the S&P 500- Why this level of concentration creates single points of failure- How tech professionals are unknowingly doubling down on the same risks- The illusion of diversification in modern index funds### When Diversification Breaks Down- Asset class correlations above 0.8 between supposedly independent investments- The "everything rally" phenomenon and why traditional 60/40 portfolios aren't working- How algorithmic trading and ETF flows amplify correlation spikes- Why bonds no longer zig when stocks zag### Building Intelligent Portfolios- Where passive investing still makes sense (and where it doesn't)- Equal-weighted vs. market-cap weighted indices- The case for active management in small-cap, emerging markets, and fixed income- "Passive-plus" strategies and systematic approaches- A practical framework for tech professionals### The Smart Approach- Using the right tool for each job instead of religious adherence to one philosophy- How to evaluate active managers who can actually add value- Cost-benefit analysis: when extra fees are worth paying- Adapting strategies as market conditions evolve## Key Data Points:- 53% of US small-cap active managers outperformed the Russell 2000- 64% of emerging markets active managers beat passive benchmarks- 42% of active fixed income strategies outperformed passive bond indices- 30-35% of Russell 2000 companies are currently unprofitable## Resources Mentioned:- Equal-weighted index funds for reducing concentration risk- Fundamental indexing approaches based on revenue and earnings- Quality and low-volatility systematic strategies- Active management in less efficient marketsThis isn't about abandoning the principles that made index investing successful—low costs, diversification, and behavioral discipline remain important. It's about recognizing that market conditions change, and intelligent investors adapt their strategies accordingly.For tech professionals with concentrated equity positions, understanding these dynamics is crucial for building truly diversified wealth over time.
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    38 mins
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