Drilling Won't Fix Gas Prices. Here's the Math.
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Drilling Won't Fix Gas Prices. Here's the Math.
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About this listen
Gas prices are above $4 a gallon. Crude oil is past $100 a barrel. And Washington is doing what Washington does — pointing to federal leasing as the fix. But is it?
TCS President Steve Ellis sits down with TCS Vice President Autumn Hanna to break down exactly how global oil markets work, why a domestic leasing policy can't move a global price, and what the numbers actually say about royalty rates and pump prices.
The math is precise, and the conclusion is clear: raising the royalty rate on new federal leases — from 12.5% to 16.67% — would have a maximum impact on pump prices of 6/100ths of a cent per gallon. That's less than a rounding error. Meanwhile, the US is already producing oil at record levels — 13.6 million barrels a day in 2025 — and Americans are still paying over $4 at the pump.
The frustration is real. The straight answers are here.