Episodes

  • What Happens If Iran Loses Control of Its Terror Network? | Dr. Colin P. Clarke

    What Happens If Iran Loses Control of Its Terror Network? | Dr. Colin P. Clarke
    Apr 15 2026
    What happens if Iran loses control of its global network of proxy groups? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Executive Director of the Soufan Center, to break down how terrorism is evolving—and why the next phase may be more dangerous than the last. They explore Iran’s strategy of using proxy organizations like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and why dismantling centralized control could actually increase the risk of more fragmented, unpredictable, and violent terrorist activity. The conversation also covers: Why today’s terrorism threat is more decentralized and complex than during the Global War on Terror How terrorist groups are funding themselves through organized crime and global networks The role of private military companies like the Wagner Group in fueling instability Why ISIS and its affiliates remain a persistent global threat How great power competition is intersecting with terrorism in places like the Middle East and Africa The risk of escalation between nuclear-armed states like India and Pakistan This is a practitioner-focused discussion on where terrorism stands today—and what policymakers, operators, and analysts may be missing about what comes next. Colin P. Clarke X/Twitter: @ColinPCarke Soufan Center Intel Brief: https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief/
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    51 mins
  • No Way Out of the Escalation Trap | Robert Pape on Iran

    No Way Out of the Escalation Trap | Robert Pape on Iran
    Apr 14 2026
    This is Part 4 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) tracking the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, several developments point to a deeper shift in the trajectory of the war: A ceasefire briefly emerged—then collapsed within 24 hours The U.S. and Iran moved toward a full blockade dynamic in the Strait of Hormuz Conflicting signals from the Trump administration on negotiations vs escalation Increasing pressure on global energy markets as disruption intensifies But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more structural: 👉 We are deep in the escalation trap—and there may be no easy off-ramp. Why escalation in this conflict is not linear—and why it appears chaotic in real time The two paths now emerging: accept Iran’s rise or escalate further How control of the Strait of Hormuz could elevate Iran to a new level of global power Why international reaction is not aligning against Iran in the way many expected What a sustained blockade means for global energy markets over the next 30–90 days The specific indicators that would signal further military escalation Conflicts like this don’t just escalate because of battlefield decisions. They escalate because neither side can accept the outcome of stopping. That’s the trap. Early signs of energy shortages as the blockade begins to take effect Any direct attacks on U.S. naval assets in or near the Strait of Hormuz Continued positioning for potential ground operations in the coming weeks New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time. Pape publishes ongoing updates and frameworks on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ At the Water’s Edge focuses on practitioner-level insights into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.
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    31 mins
  • Why Iran’s Regime Isn’t About to Fall (And What Everyone Gets Wrong) | Arash Azizi

    Why Iran’s Regime Isn’t About to Fall (And What Everyone Gets Wrong) | Arash Azizi
    Apr 8 2026
    For years, many in Washington have assumed that pressure, protests, or targeted strikes could trigger regime change in Iran. But what if those assumptions are fundamentally wrong? In this episode, Scott sits down with Arash Azizi, a writer and historian focused on Iranian politics, to break down what’s actually happening inside Iran right now—beyond the headlines. They discuss why the Iranian regime has remained in power despite widespread opposition, how authority is really structured inside the system, and why the lack of a coherent opposition movement may be the single biggest factor shaping Iran’s future. The conversation also explores: Who actually holds power inside Iran today Why leadership decapitation hasn’t led to regime collapse How the current war is impacting internal dynamics What a realistic path to regime change would require Why the next regime in Iran may not be democratic This is a grounded, inside look at Iran’s political reality—and what policymakers, analysts, and the public often get wrong.
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    40 mins
  • The Short War Illusion Is Over | Robert Pape on Iran Escalation

    The Short War Illusion Is Over | Robert Pape on Iran Escalation
    Apr 7 2026
    This is Part 3 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) analyzing the escalation dynamics of the Iran conflict in real time. Over the past week, several developments have shifted the trajectory of the war: U.S. ground forces entered Iran for the first time in a limited rescue operation Continued strikes on energy infrastructure across the region Increasing pressure around the Strait of Hormuz Early indicators of reserve and National Guard mobilization But the most important shift, according to Pape, is this: 👉 The “short war illusion” is over. His article in the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/opinion/iran-war-strait-hormuz.html The expectation that this conflict would remain limited is fading—and that changes how governments, markets, and military planners respond. Why the recent U.S. ground incursion does not yet constitute Stage 3 What defines the transition to full ground operations Why targeting energy infrastructure has repeatedly failed to achieve strategic objectives How civilian harm shapes long-term escalation dynamics The operational indicator that would signal real regime instability Why expectations—not just battlefield outcomes—are now driving the conflict Wars don’t just evolve based on what happens on the battlefield. They evolve based on what people believe is going to happen next. And that shift may already be underway. In the next episode, we examine a deeper question: 👉 Is this conflict changing the global balance of power? Pape argues that Iran may be emerging as a fourth center of world power—a claim that has major implications for how this war unfolds. New episodes released weekly tracking the escalation dynamics of the Iran conflict. At the Water’s Edge focuses on practitioner-level insights into national security and geopolitics—bridging the gap between theory and real-world decision-making. 🎯 In this episode:🧠 Key takeaway:📊 Looking ahead:🎧 Follow the series:📡 About the show:
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    38 mins
  • AI for Warfighters: What Silicon Valley Gets Wrong | Tyler Saltsman

    AI for Warfighters: What Silicon Valley Gets Wrong | Tyler Saltsman
    Apr 2 2026
    Most people think AI is ready for modern warfare.It’s not.In this episode, I sit down with Tyler Saltsman, Founder and CEO of EdgeRunner AI, to break down what artificial intelligence can actually do on the battlefield—and where it falls short.Tyler is building domain-specific AI models designed to operate directly on-device, enabling warfighters to make better decisions in real time without relying on internet connectivity.We discuss:- Why many commercial AI models refuse real-world military tasks- The problem with bias, guardrails, and lack of transparency in current AI systems- Why AI must operate offline in contested environments- The gap between Silicon Valley and the warfighter- The biggest bottlenecks inside DoD acquisition and procurement (ATO, OTA)- How AI is changing tactical decision-making at the unit level- The risks of relying on a small number of dominant AI labsWe also get into the realities of building a defense tech company today, and what it takes to move from prototype to fielded capability.This is a grounded, operator-level conversation about AI in warfare—focused on execution, not hype.---About the Guest:Tyler Saltsman is the Founder and CEO of EdgeRunner AI, a defense technology company building domain-specific AI models for military applications. He previously worked at AWS, where he was involved in large-scale AI model training and infrastructure development.---Subscribe to At the Water’s Edge for conversations with operators, policymakers, and builders shaping the future of national security.
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    42 mins
  • We’re Nearing Stage 3 — And It May Be Irreversible | Robert Pape

    We’re Nearing Stage 3 — And It May Be Irreversible | Robert Pape
    Mar 30 2026
    This is Part 2 of an ongoing series with Robert Pape (University of Chicago) breaking down the escalation dynamics of the current conflict with Iran. Follow him at his substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ Over the past week, the situation has evolved rapidly: Additional U.S. forces are deploying to the region Energy infrastructure across the Gulf is under attack Proxy actors, including the Houthis, are expanding the conflict In this conversation, we focus on one question: 👉 Where are we now? According to Pape, the answer is clear: We are now in the “escalation trap” — and nearing Stage 3. That next phase could mark a critical turning point, potentially triggering: Ground operations A prolonged war of attrition A shift toward what Pape calls “Stage 4” — where risks begin to extend toward the U.S. homeland Why the conflict is expanding, not stabilizing What “Stage 3” actually means in practical terms Why current “peace talks” are likely not real negotiations How Iran’s position has strengthened economically during the conflict The relationship between foreign troop presence and terrorism risk What to watch over the next 10–15 days Military success does not always translate into strategic advantage. In fact, as Pape explains, it can create the very dynamics that deepen and prolong conflict. If you’re interested in practitioner-level insights on national security and geopolitics: Follow the show Share this episode Send it to someone tracking this conflict
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    26 mins
  • The Drone Threat Is Already Here

    The Drone Threat Is Already Here
    Mar 25 2026
    Episode Title:The Drone Threat Is Already Here Episode Description: Drones are no longer just a battlefield problem. From Ukraine to the Middle East, unmanned systems are reshaping how wars are fought—cheap, scalable, and increasingly accessible to both states and non-state actors. But the most important shift may not be happening overseas. It’s happening at home. In this episode, Scott sits down with Paul Lushenko, Chief Strategist at Joint Interagency Task Force 401, the U.S. military’s newest effort to coordinate a whole-of-government approach to countering drones. Drawing on both operational experience and research, Lushenko breaks down how drone warfare is evolving, what we’re learning from Ukraine and the current conflict with Iran, and why defending the U.S. homeland against drones is far more complex than most people realize. Are drones a revolution in warfare—or just the next evolution? What the war in Ukraine is actually teaching us (and what we’re getting wrong) How drones are being used in high-end state conflict with Iran The growing threat of drones to U.S. bases, infrastructure, and public spaces Why the biggest challenge isn’t technology—it’s coordination The cost problem: $1M missiles vs. $10K drones How tactics spread globally through a “contagion effect” The role of Joint Interagency Task Force 401 in countering drone threats Why mindset, training, and policy matter as much as hardware “This isn’t just a capability reserved for distant battlefields. It’s on our shores. It’s on the southern border. It’s at stadiums.” Paul Lushenko is the Chief Strategist for Joint Interagency Task Force 401, where he helps synchronize U.S. military and interagency efforts to counter drone threats at home and abroad. He is a career Army officer with nearly two decades of experience supporting special operations and has conducted extensive research on drone warfare, military innovation, and the integration of AI into modern conflict. Drone warfare is no longer confined to distant battlefields. As the technology spreads and becomes more accessible, the United States faces a new kind of challenge—one that requires not just better technology, but better integration across the military, government, and society. This conversation explores what that future looks like—and how prepared we really are. Follow At the Water’s Edge for conversations on national security, geopolitics, and the future of warfare from a practitioner’s perspective. 🔑 Key Topics Covered🎯 Key Insight🎙️ About the Guest📌 Why This Episode Matters🔗 Listen / Follow
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    52 mins
  • The Escalation Trap

    The Escalation Trap
    Mar 22 2026
    The Escalation Trap: Robert Pape on Iran, Airpower, and Strategic Failure Robert Pape will be giving a live briefing the status of the conflict and what stage 3 escalation looks like at 5pm EST 22 March 26 on his substack, Escalation Trap. Robert Pape Robert Pape's Substack HERE (https://escalationtrap.substack.com/) Description: What if the biggest risk in war isn’t failure—but success? In this episode, I’m joined by Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence. As the conflict with Iran escalates, Professor Pape explains why what we’re seeing isn’t just a series of military exchanges—but a predictable pattern he calls the “escalation trap.” A dynamic where each step forward reduces control, increases pressure to escalate, and makes it harder to achieve political objectives. We break down: Why airpower alone has never achieved regime change How escalation actually progresses in stages Where the real center of gravity lies in the current conflict Why Iran may have more leverage than it appears What policymakers and the media are getting wrong What a realistic endgame could look like This is a practitioner-focused conversation on how wars actually work—and where this one may be headed. Note: This conversation was recorded in real time as events were unfolding. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:00 The Escalation Trap explained 08:30 Why airpower fails strategically 17:30 Escalation stages and shifting advantage 26:30 Economic warfare and oil leverage 35:00 Who has the advantage right now 39:00 What policymakers are getting wrong 42:00 What happens next
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    47 mins